Looking into the skein of Afghanistan peace and conflict, one can easily construe that many players have their hands in it particularly delving into Afghanistan's past this intrusion does not look any new phenomenon. Now we need to ponder that why we are subdued and invaded from a region for the past century?
Preamble:
Efforts for peace negotiations with the Taliban and restoring peace in Afghanistan have been scaled up in recent times. The United States, Pakistan, Russia, India, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and a few other countries have been involved in Afghanistan's peace efforts in one way or the other.
Every one of them holds out their views regarding Afghanistan's future political setup and polity. .Every one of them wants others should buy their views. However when it comes to Russia and a few certain other states they give a particular place and role to the Taliban in future Afghanistan. Many of them even don’t take the standpoint and wishes of the Afghan government into consideration.
However, Afghanistan, has persistently been holding on that the peace process should be Afghan-led and Afghan-owned. Afghanistan's official absence in last year August Moscow peace gathering and opposition to Zalmay Khalilzad's earlier stance at the start of the year on peace process stemmed from the fear that the ownership of the peace process will be lost from the hands of Kabul.
Looking into the skein of Afghanistan peace and conflict, one can easily construe that many players have their hands in it particularly delving into Afghanistan's past this intrusion does not look any new phenomenon. Now we need to ponder that why we are subdued and invaded from a region for the past century?
This is a matter of balance and non-align movement between superpowers and regional powers. If we fail in finding a right and logical answer to this we will fail even in the future how to gain peace, and resultantly our youths and our financial strengths will be consumed by an illogical, but strategic war.
Therefore, we should understand it logically that all the stakeholder states and groups who have interests in Afghanistan should be satisfied through diplomacy.
Is this logical to take the war and peace simultaneously? This brief write up discusses peace process, the engagement of foreign players in Afghan peace, the implications of their overt and covert involvement on future Afghanistan, and how to reach peace practically.
There are two mindsets in Afghanistan when it comes to peace negotiations with the Taliban. The first thought considers the Taliban key players in the political and insurgent conflict. This kind of thought is held by probably laymen who lack political education and are unable to to delve deep into Afghan conflict.
The second mindset is that peace and peace negotiations need to be started with those powers who use the Taliban as political tools for their national interests.
This mindset is very unique. This mindset is being held by those who are policymakers, or by those who have an in-depth knowledge of Afghanistan's true problem. They have good analytical skills that's why there is utmost urgency to ponder over foreign factors and players affecting Afghanistan's stability and peace.
Other than certain western countries, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, India, and the United States have had overt and covert contacts with the Taliban. They extend their contacts via different channels.
These contacts do differ in nature, for instance, Russia and China hold contacts with the Taliban in an apparent pursuit of ending the crisis.
Saudi Arabia, UAE were two among the three states which recognized the Taliban's regime, however, now think the Taliban should have a role in future Afghanistan. In too recent times India while detouring from its traditional policy has shown interests in contacts with the Taliban.
India historically has supported always the Afghan governments, even in such a time when the entire world discarded Dr. Najeeb's government New Delhi stood by its side.
Against this backdrop we need to ask that is this possible for a country like Afghanistan with limited possibilities and strengths to maintain and ensure the interests of all these states in such a way where its own interests are not damaged?
And if we take another country for Afghanistan, will that state be in such a position to address the above mentioned problems successfully? In short we need to ponder over it that is this possible to restore peace through a multi-faceted program, is this possible anyway, or we are barking a wrong tree?
Hopes and Traditions
Afghanistan:
In an interview to CNN Fareed Zakaria on Jan. 24, 2019, President Ashraf Ghani said that peace is crucial and the war which is going on for eighteen years now needs to be ended.
Ghani hinted at the complexities of the peace as it has too many facets.
Similarly he ensured the global community that Afghanistan has a distinguished agenda against the Taliban and that is how they will reach peace and put an end to the decades’ long war Afghanistan.
Yet he did not appear well on the standpoint and intentions of the Taliban.
He reiterated that the original players are not the Taliban but it is Pakistan as it has been supporting the Taliban and providing them safe hideouts. The Afghan government take war damages into serious accounts and know well that how to use its cards to end the war.
Ghani, in the same interview, made a particular mention of Afghan security forces made it clear m the world that it is Afghan blood has been sacrificed in war on terror. Nonetheless, despite all these things Afghanistan has its own terms and conditions when it comes to peace with the Taliban.
The first and foremost is that no change in the current political system is acceptable and President Ashraf Ghani is standing firmly on this.
Talking to media after submitting his documents for presidential elections on Jan. 20, 2019 to the Independent Election Commission (IEC), Ashraf Ghani sternly ruled out any interim political setup.
As in recent times peace negotiations have gathered momentum rumors are doing rounds that with the arrival of the Taliban power will be transferred to an interim government.
Before this, there have already been two developments in peace talks with the Taliban.
Last year on Dec. 28, Ghani formed a 12-member peace team and Abdul Salam Rahimi was appointed its head who also is the head of his office. After thirteen days of forming this peace team, Ghani, on Dec. 09, 2018, appointed his critic Umar Daudzai as his special representative for peace and the head of "High Peace Council".
From the government point of view, with a government address, both the developments mean the government wants to increase peace efforts and invoke foreign players to play their role and support the Afghan government so that the decades long war can be ended.
Being a responsible government, the Afghan government has always sought that Afghanistan should be given the prime and due role in peace process and ownership of the peace process.
It was manifested in August 2018 during the Moscow peace gathering where the Russian government had invited the Afghan government and the Taliban as two guests and equals.
Here it should be noted that despite the government efforts to facilitate the Taliban for peace negotiations however the latter does not to present itself for talks with Kabul.
In spite of the Taliban's Islamic ideology (which stresses on peace) and is ideal for them they don't come to peace talks with the government.
The dichotomy here is that the Taliban does not follow any Islamic ideology but a particular military-strategic ideology and this quite evident who is behind the Taliban.
Pakistan has a long history of the Taliban's backing. In 1980's when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, Pakistan mustered up, armed, and trained most of the Taliban's leaders formerly Mujahideen and they fought against the soviets.
In 1990s when the Taliban movement started, the Taliban leadership utilized their old contacts with Pakistan's intelligence agencies.
Pakistan too had a good experience in working with these elements. After their ouster in 2001 Pakistan successfully managed to use the Taliban in Afghanistan for its strategic depth policy.
Pakistan has realized that its interests could only be protected when there is war in Afghanistan or the Taliban is in the echelon of power.
Generally Pakistan and its policymakers are a victim of Afghanistan-phobia.
The fundamental reason of this phobia is because of Afghanistan physical and geographical factors. Though the contentious Durand Line is also one of the factors, which is why Pakistan wants Afghanistan embroiled in a constant state of war and to push it into a quagmire of economic challenges.
Pakistan worries that if Afghanistan stands on its own feet then Islamabad will face water problems from Kabul and also Pakistan's products will find a shrinking market in Afghanistan and thus Pakistan will face an economic blow. Currently market is shrinking for Pakistani products. However this "worry or insecurity" by Pakistan is not well founded as in times of its wars with India, Afghanistan has never been turned into a strategic threat to Pakistan.
While looking into this matter, this is essential to the Afghan government and the people to decide whether Afghanistan can deliver to Pakistan what it wants from Afghanistan not?
If the answer to this question is no then Afghanistan and its people should brace them up for vying and competition. And if Afghanistan cannot do this then it will lost yet another generation and the war too.
FUNDING AND FINANCIAL SUPPORT
Militants and the Taliban for Pakistan are a source of funds and is an effective strategy.
Pakistan's military establishment knows it very well how to grab financial benefits from the international community in the name of the Taliban or against terror groups.
A small portion of the funds they get from the international community spend on the Taliban and terror groups.
The rest of the money is invested into armed forces sector.
Though it receive billions of dollars in the name of war on terror, yet it is not sincere with the global community.
The United States has waged a global war on terror and arrived in Afghanistan.
The United States has topped the list of those nations which support Pakistan financially.
The US president Donald Trump tweeted in 2018 regarding financial aid to Pakistan and exposed Islamabad's duplicity.
He divulged that Pakistan has betrayed the United States. He said that Pakistan has betrayed the United States, has lied, attempted to fool American leaders, despite it that it has received billions of dollars in aid.
Looking into what did he say this is easy to construe that Pakistan in return of billions of dollars aid has supported the Taliban.
PROXY WAR
Pakistan is the only country which is built by Britain on occupied lands. The lands were inherited by Pakistan in legacy from the British. This kind of birth and legacy creates legitimacy problems for Pakistan. Balochistan is one of the regions which was occupied by the Britain and then by Pakistan. Pakistan was annexed to Pakistan militarily in 20th century. Balochistan has vast natural resources, however, it remains the most backward and stunted region in Pakistan.
Its natural resources are being grabbed by Punjab. Besides that Pakistan has been built on a major piece of land which was occupied from Afghanistan.
In Nov. 13, 1893, a line of influence between Afghanistan and the British India was drawn named "Durand Line". Since the agreement was between Afghanistan and the then British India and when British is slashed from British India only India remains and thus the agreement should have been left out to Afghanistan and India but Pakistan hijacked it. That's the reason Pakistan from the very day of its birth tries to keep the occupied regions under its territorial entity.
Since coming into existence there is hardly a lull time where Pakistan did not face troubles in Pashtun and Baloch belts and at times armed clashes. To keep these regions under its subjugation, Pakistan pursues a policy of proxy wars and considers conflicts in its neighbors a key to its existence and development.
This is why it always backs the groups that are hell-bent on destabilizing Afghanistan.
It destroys the infrastructure of its neighbors.
Pakistan, by doing so, thinks that it turn it's neighbors future into a bleak and barren land.
The logic behind this support to the former Mujahideen, and the Taliban have been this one and in the near future it does not appear it will wane anyway.
Here it is quite crucial for Afghanistan to prove Pakistan's strategists wrong therefor it should work on such a strategy that will change the principles of this game. This is possible only when Afghanistan finds a good riddance of it daily problems and equip itself which such qualities which enables it to make Pakistan respect Afghanistan as a dignified state.
The first step in this direction should be a clear definition of the "enemy" and then inculcating this definition into the minds of Afghans who is your enemy and an enemy should be looked at as an enemy, and should be treated as an enemy.
Pakistan has adopted the same strategy against its eastern neighbor India.
In November 2008 Pakistan based Lashkar-e-Tayyeba affiliated ten militants carried out terror attacks in India's Mumbai city.
In Mumbai attacks as many as 164 people were killed and more than 3,00 wounded. Similarly on February 14, 2019 a terror attack hit Indian paramilitary convoy in Indian-administered Kashmir's Pulwama region where more than 40 people were killed.
Jaish-e-Mohammad, a Pakistan-based terror outfit claimed the responsibility of the attack. Supporting these outfits has been the formal policy of Pakistan. That's why since the time of the attack in Kashmir and Mumbai the leaders of these groups roam freely.
Pakistan never shies away from accepting how much influence it has over the Taliban and they have their own versions of logic and reasons why they support the Taliban in Afghanistan. Pakistan's foreign minister Mehmud Qureshi said on January 27, 2019 that the peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban have been a diplomatic victory and added that Pakistan played a fundamental role in pushing the Taliban to the table of talks.
There has been a bitter reality regarding Pakistan that if it ensures its survival with legitimate ways it cannot live among other nations, therefore, its leadership adopts illegitimate ways.
INDIA:
India has been one of the biggest regional supporters of Afghanistan.
India became the fifth nation of the world and the first in the region in 2010 when it comes to its financial aid to Afghanistan.
In 2014 after the drawdown of foreign forces from Afghanistan, it was evident that international aid will decline, however, India increased its aid instead of decreasing it.
Indian aid to Afghanistan in 2014 was worth US$ 1.5 billion whereas in 2018 this reached US$ 2 billion. Besides that India signed a bilateral security agreement with Afghanistan in 2011. It was the first ever such an agreement signed between Afghanistan and another country after the ouster of the Taliban in 2001.
What is India's wish?
In his one-day visit to India in October 2018, President Ashraf Ghani told the Indian Prime Minister that bilateral trade between Afghanistan and India have expanded after opening of air freight and Afghanistan wishes to open trade route via sea.
Afghanistan and India's sea corridor will link ndia with central Asia. This will herald a new era of integration in regional business.
Being an emerging economic power India wants expanded trade ties with Afghanistan.
India is vying economically with China and it has enmity with Pakistan, which is why India eyes expanded trade ties with Afghanistan. Afghanistan has been a good route to Central Asian Market for India.
India has been making efforts to take a major part in Iran's Chahbahar Port so that it export its products to Afghanistan and via Afghanistan to Central Asia and also can import goods from there.
After India, Afghanistan, and Iran signed trade cooperation agreement over Chahbahar Port, media reports said that this is the door to India's entry into Central Asia.
INDIA'S FIRST CONTACT WITH THE TALIBAN
India has been one of Afghanistan's neighbors which has historically stood by every Afghan government and supported. In recent times when peace negotiations became a widely talked subject in media, India also tried to have its part in this matter. Though India has always looked at the Taliban as a militant extremist group and it has termed its contact with them informal, however, it is believed India has its concerns over trade and political interests.
New Delhi has two major priorities when it comes to its Afghan policy.
The first is to contain Pakistan's influence and containing Pakistan's agents/protégés so that they should not devise any anti-India program from Afghan soil (like the way they did in 1990). The second one is to have access to Central Asia's energy market.
These are the two major points which compelled India to open a dialogue channel with the Taliban. Though for India, Pakistan's influence over the Taliban is a matter of grave concern, which is why it has a bad past with the Taliban.
In November 2018, India attended for the first time a peace dialogue meeting where the Taliban members were also sitting. It was in Moscow. This gathering was aimed at to discuss how to put an end to the decades’long conflict in Afghanistan. India sent two ex but most seasoned officials, Amar Sinha and TCA Raghavan to the Moscow conference. Amar Sinha has served in Afghanistan as Indian ambassador whereas Raghavan has served as Indian high commissioner in Pakistan and Singapore and formerly as a diplomat in Britain and Kuwait
Ravish Kumar, India's Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman told media regarding the Moscow conference that India supports every effort and program aimed at reconciliation and peace, which protect unity and political pluralism in Afghanistan, and brings security, stability and integration.
"India has constantly supported such a policy where Afghanistan should lead and own the peace process, and Afghans should have control and part in it," he said.
Manoj Joshi, the representative of the Observer Research Foundation while talking to AlJazeera that India has no other choice but to talk to the Taliban because the United States, China, Russia, and even the Afghan government have all given a green signal for talks with the Taliban.
"New Delhi is confident that the hosting Moscow will not take any step which will undermine India's interests. Similarly by taking part in Moscow conference, India manifested that showing up in any program which is attended by High Peace Council of the Afghan government is not problematic," he said.
After going through India's standpoint on this subject this is easy to construe that India's talks with the Taliban is a compulsion and it appears to be an effort to safeguard its economic and political interests in Afghanistan and have a role in future Afghanistan.
while looking into the above mentioned factors, Afghanistan needs to pursue maturity in it politics so that it successfully contain Pakistan's penetration and infiltration into its national affairs and when Afghanistan reaches a good opportunity and stability then it should adopt a policy of safeguarding its national interests being an equal and a sovereign state.
RUSSIA:
Afghanistan and Russia ties date back to the times of great game. After the former Great Britain and Russia started a great game in Afghanistan in 1840, the door of Moscow-Kabul ties opened. Afghanistan was invaded militarily by the former Soviet Union in 1979 which lasted until 1989. The relations kept ongoing in one way or the other.
In 1979 Soviet forces invaded Afghanistan and the invasion lasted until 1989. Even after its collapse it kept continued it's support to the government of Dr. Najeeb, however, the support was thin and finally Najeeb's government collapsed at the hands of the American funded Mujahideen.
A chapter of the Moscow-Kabul gets closed.
Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences analyst....... said that the golden era of Russia-Afghan ties was in 50s of the twentieth century. During these years (1950-1979) former Soviet Union laid the foundation of Afghanistan's economic projects and networks. Over 140 projects including highways were completed.
In Jalalabad a water complex was built and in agriculture farms orange and olive were planted. Kabul Polytechnic Institute and many other projects were completed.
Afghan affairs experts say that Moscow spent nearly six billion dollars from 1950-1960.
The second chapter started in 2001 after the United States was attacked in 9/11 and an international alliance was made against global terrorism. Afghanistan was invaded.
Though Russia, the successor of the former Soviet Union, was not part of the American-led alliance, however, during America's invasion of Afghanistan, Moscow shared its intelligence reports with Washington.
Russia allowed the American-led alliance to use Russia's soil for its logistic convoys to Afghanistan. Russia has interests beyond this.
Russia recognized the Taliban as a terrorist group in 2003.
This happened after the Taliban supported Chechen insurgents for freedom and sold worth 500 million heavy weapons via AI-Haramain, a Saudi welfare organization.
This ignited the anger of Russia and declared the Taliban a terror group.
A former diplomat and a former head of the communist party for Lebanon and Palestine during Soviet era, Matuzove, Viacheslav, who has worked on this subject from 1974 to 1989 said: " Russia considers any non state actors who target general publics a terror group".
Russia’s fear:
Gen. John Nicholson, the commander of the United States ISAF said in April 27, 2018 that Russia and the West have shared interests in Afghanistan's security.
“We both pursue a shared struggle against those terror groups which threaten our country, threaten Russia, and threaten Central Asia. We have shared interests in the defeat of Daesh. We show interests in a joint war on drugs. We have shared interests in Afghanistan's security and peace. We hope that we can do partnership with Russia and all the countries in the region so that we reach these goals in Afghanistan," he said.
Possibly this is because of these shared interests that the West and Russia opened channels for talks with the Taliban.
Moreover, in his annual press conference in December 20, 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that finally peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban would happen and Russia supports such a solution to the Afghan conflict where all powerful political forces of Afghanistan are involved in it.
He said that Russia needs to take benefits from its military base in neighboring Tajikistan while looking into Afghanistan's current situation. Russia before that had held meetings with the Taliban and hosted many times this terror group.
There are many reasons why Russia shows keen interests in peace negotiations whereas one of the main reasons is Russia is worried over the threat of Daesh's infiltration into its frontiers or penetrating into its neighboring countries and then American intervention into Central Asia.
Russia has given a green signal to the Taliban in December 2015. Russia's Special Representative Zameer Kabulov said on Dec. 23, 2015 that Moscow shares intelligence reports with the Taliban and when it comes to comes to Daesh expansion, Russia and the Taliban have shared interests.
"Taliban has similar interests with us. As I have earlier mentioned that we have opened channels of negotiations with the Taliban where exchange information. Both, Pakistani Taliban and Afghan Taliban said that they dont recognize Daesh's chief Abubakar-Al-Baghdadi as their caliph," he said.
Russia closes its eyes over a biggest fact and that is the Taliban and Daesh fight for a similar agenda. Though there is only an apparent structural and difference between the two and a difference in their flags which for they kill and behead people.
This notion turned into reality in August 2018 when 250 Daesh fighters in Faryab province surrendered to the government and their video want viral in media that first they were the Taliban and then turned into Daesh.
There is yet another important question that in case the the Taliban gets any role in partnership with the Afghan government in future, how will be Russia's behavior towards any such setup and how it will affect Afghanistan's security?
RUSSIA AND PEACE IN AFGHANISTAN
Russia has been hosting Afghan peace negotiations for quite some time. There are certain documents that Russia has equipped the Taliban with arms in the past 17 years until recently and before starting frosting and supporting peace negotiations.
In April 02, 2018, Gen. John Nicholson, the command of ISAF, talked about Russia's support to the Taliban and said that Russian arms have been smuggled through Tajikistan frontiers and reached into the Taliban's hands.
Similarly he alleged that Russia exaggerates the number of Daesh fighters and it's strength so that to show the Taliban fight a legitimate cause and to provide a little bit support to the Taliban. He said they brought the Russian made weapons to the centre and added that the weapons were handed over to them by Afghan leaders and said these weapons were given to the Taliban by Russia.
The formal support of Russia to Afghan peace negotiations started in 2018. In November 09, 2018, Russia hosted direct peace negotiations between Afghanistan's High Peace Council and the Taliban, in Moscow.
Since then the Taliban has rejected any prospect of direct peace talks with the Afghan government and Moscow has also opted a wait and see policy and not doing anything to facilitate talks. A second peace negotiations program was organized in Moscow in 2019 but this time no Afghan government attend the event.
In both the peace talks programs Russia focused on those Taliban groups with whom the Taliban does not have any troubles. The matter of fact is that Russia considers that the US has lost the war in Afghanistan particularly after president Donald Trump said that the longest Afghan war will be ended.
Russia now looks at the Taliban as key players and want to utilize them for its interests.
Now Russia's policy is to provide political clout and legitimacy to the Taliban under the garb of peace talks and push them as a powerful party in Afghan conflict, difficult to avoid.
Russian Ambition:
Like other countries Russia has two main advantages in Afghanistan. First are enduring and strategic while the 2nd are tactical and short-term which are always changing.
Afghanistan is important and beneficial for Russia on many aspects. Beside the fact that there are no considerable signs of contacts between different forces in Afghanistan after the cold war, still Russia consider Afghanistan a route to outreach Indian Ocean, Gulf States, Iran and Pakistan.
Russia has also conceived that stability and instability in Afghanistan is directly linked with the Central Asia and later years has also proved that insecurity in Afghanistan means insecurity in Central Asia. As long lasting political goal Russia wants to keep its political influence in Afghanistan which, in fact, is linked with their geopolitical benefits.
Russia’s short-term goal in Afghanistan is to be able to cooperate in the formation of a stable govt. in Afghanistan which must be beneficial to Russia or at least will not prove harmful to it.
Keeping in view the Daud Khan’s coup d'etat Russia think the current Afghan govt. is at the verge of collapse.
Currently Russia is focusing on three main elements of Afghanistan issue. Firstly, they rely on some of the Northern Leaders who are still in contact with them, secondly, Taliban and thirdly the former communists. The main purpose of Russia is to finance these three elements. One of these elements will definitely exist in the new elected govt. who will prove beneficial to Russia.
IRAN:
In the first sight it looks difficult to see a Shiite Iran will reach a deal with an extremist Sunni group, particularly in such a scenario when just two decades ago the two were open enemies. However, in recent times, situation has changed altogether.Media reports reveal that certain Taliban leaders' families live in Iran. Ties between the Iran and the Taliban are not secret anymore. Terrorist Financing Targeting Center (TFTC) banned two Quds troops in October 2018 for alleged financial support to the Taliban. The TFTC resolution, which accuses Iran was part of the Taliban's attacks in recent months, has been approved by the United States was the Gulf Council.
After FTCF move, the US state secretary Mike Pompeo handed over a long list to Iran in which one of the demands was that Tehran should stop its support.
In a speech at the Heritage Foundation in Washington last year in May, Mike Pompeo said Iran should stop its support to the Taliban and other terror groups and should not provide safe havens to al-Qaeda leaders. The new chapter of the ties between the Taliban and Iran turns to the killing of the Taliban's deputy head Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor.
He stepped into the shoes of Mullah Umar and on July 30, 2015, the Taliban confirmed his death.
Mullah Mansoor was killed in May 21, 2014, in Balochistan quite close to border with Iran. Documents say that he had recently moved to Baluchistan from Iran. His killing further exposed the Taliban-Iran nexus. Ties between the Taliban and Iran still exit and in comparison to the past, they have improved even more.
Before leaving for India, Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Zareef Jawad said the Taliban should have a role in Afghanistan's future political setup, however they dont favor their past role. "This looks impossible where the Taliban doesn't get any role in future Afghanistan," he commented.
In India while talking to media, Zarif said in January 2019 that Iran has intelligence relations with the Taliban. In December 26 to 31, 2018 the Taliban travelled to Iran where they talked with Iranian officials.
In December 26, 2018, the secretary of National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani said that Afghan government has been given reports about the ongoing talks with the Taliban and they will continue.
It needs to be taken into account that Iran's drift towards ties with the taliban is because of Iran's enmity with the US. And when the Taliban and the US finally reach a deal, the ties between the Taliban and Iran will see a seismic change probably.
Water
Iran has recently had to face a serious water crisis. That the Aq Gol Lake, covering an area of 839 hectares, completely dried up was the worst news for Iran in January 2018. The Aq Gol Lake was one of the oldest Iranian lakes and this is an indicator of the severe drought that Iran faced. A year ago, in 2018, the National Drought Warning and Monitoring Center affiliated with the Iran Meteorological Organization reported that only 3% of Iran’s geography did not have a water problem. The rest, 97%, of the area was faced with water shortage. Because Iran’s drought problem was most extensive and most severe in the areas close to the Afghanistan border, Iran completely focused its attention on the water that flows in from Afghanistan. Speaking to the 2017 International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms, organized with the support of the United Nations, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani stated that he would not remain quiet about the environmental damage caused by the reservoirs and dams built within Afghanistan over rivers that flow into Iran. He clearly mentioned the Salma Dam which is built on the Harirud. Similarly, Mr. Rouhani also mentioned the Kajaki and Kamal Khan dams which are built on the Helmand River. 27
In order to prevent Afghanistan from working on these dams, Iran supports militant Taliban in the west of the country to try and sabotage the dams in that region of Afghanistan. Government sources in Afghanistan also affirm that the only reason Iran supports the Taliban is to have full access to the water resources of Afghanistan. On 17 July 2018, former commander of the Border Police General Gul Nabi Ahmadzai said, “Iran is supporting the Taliban to disrupt developmental projects in Afghanistan, including water dams. They benefit from keeping Afghanistan unstable and want to control our resources.” Just as we referred to Pakistan, Afghanistan should adopt a mature policy vis-a-vis Iran as well. This policy should make Iran understand that its interests can remain secure only through interaction with the elected government of Afghanistan. Any sentimental policy by Afghanistan towards its neighbors can pose significant threats to its national security.
The United States
Water is not Iran’s only rationale for supporting the Taliban. It also wants to demonstrate its hostility towards the United States. Iran considers the presence of Americans in the region, especially in neighboring Afghanistan, to be a possible threat to its interests. The United States knows about Iran’s policy towards Afghanistan and understands why Iran wants Afghanistan to remain unstable. Robert Baer, former case officer at the CIA, says, “Afghanistan has long been a source of instability and strategic interest for Iran. Under both the Shah and Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran demonstrated that it will take almost any measure to keep western Afghanistan out of the hands of its enemies. In 1996, for instance, Iran’s National Security Council voted in an emergency meeting to invade Afghanistan and capture Herat to stop the Taliban from marching on Iran’s border.”14
Iran is essentially seeking a friendly Afghanistan. It wants the kind of friendship that it has with Assad in Syria and the relationship it had with Nouri al-Maliki in Iraq. To achieve this, Iran invests in two fronts. The first front is the enticement of leaders through money and other means to secure its interests while on the second front, Iran resorts to its religious influence. Iran has now developed wide space for its interests among the Shia Hazara people. Iran has wide influence among non-Pashtun political leaders. Iranian influence can be seen most clearly among non-Pashtun technocrats and intellectuals. The Hazara observe their religious days in a manner that they depict obvious political maneuvers held upon the request and with the financial backing of Iran. This way Iran wishes to compete against the United States from within the Afghan government to reduce US influence. In short, Iran interferes in Afghanistan through both soft and hard power. Iran’s support for the Taliban is an example of its hard power and its soft power lies in its backing for political and community leaders as well as in arranging educational and cultural activities.
Iran, however, faces a serious dilemma. While Iran does support the Taliban against the United States but it also understands that if the Taliban reached power in Afghanistan, it would lead to the formation of a Saudi-Pakistan-Afghanistan triangle against Iran which may prove to be highly dangerous for it. The complexity of the dilemma also lies in the difficulty of maintaining a balance in support of the Taliban so that the militant organization neither wins nor loses the war in Afghanistan. Such circumstances provides Afghanistan’s political and diplomatic quarters a significant opportunity to convince Iran that only an elected government can secure Iranian interests in their country and therefore Iran should withdraw its support for the Taliban.
The Arabian Gulf and the Taliban
Qatar
Three countries in the Arab world have high interest in the Taliban and Afghanistan problem: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. When the Taliban had the government in control, Qatar did not formally recognize the regime but since 2011, Qatar has publicly developed its relations with the Taliban. The original channel that helped establish these relations came through Pakistan. Pakistan, a close ally of Qatar, paved the way for Taliban members to travel to Qatar. During these visits Qatari sheikhs were encouraged to provide the Taliban with a political office in Doha. The political office was opened on 18 June 2018 with the declared aim of facilitating peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan.
Qatar has long maintained strategic friendship with Pakistan and supports it in international affairs. A shared Qatar and Pakistan view about the Taliban is a component of this partnership. Qatar apparently plays the role of a mediator but in reality it represents Pakistan when dealing with Afghanistan and the Taliban. In the face of objections from the Afghan government, travel arrangements for members of the Taliban from Pakistan to Qatar and other countries are a part of this shared agenda. Qatar may not have much interest in Afghanistan but it is involved in negotiation process for the sake of Pakistan’s interests. Qatar believes that its effort to guarantee Pakistan’s interest in Afghanistan will make Pakistan more obliged to it and when the time arrives, Qatar will seek to use the Pakistan military and intelligence resources in its military one-upmanship with its neighbors. Going be their record and history, the Taliban should have opened an office in either Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates because Taliban relations with both countries go back a long time. However, the choice of Doha for opening an office means that Pakistan and Qatar have shared interest in doing that. In light of the above factors, it is recommended to the Afghanistan diplomatic corps to use such strategies and pressure tools against Qatar that would make it difficult for Qatar to pose a threat to Afghan interests at the altar of Pakistani interests in Afghanistan.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia, which calls itself the leader of the Muslim World, has for decades provided financial support to extremist movements in the region. Saudi Arabia provided more support than any other country to Afghan mujahedeen against the presence of the USSR in Afghanistan in 1980s. In his book Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia,Ahmed Rashid writes, “The Saudis gave nearly US$4 billion in official aid to the Mujaheddin between 1980 and 1990, which did not include unofficial aid from Islamic charities, foundations, the private funds of Princes and mosque collections.”15
When the Taliban took over Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia expanded its relations with them even further and these relations stayed the same in many respects even after 2001. Saudi Arabia was one of the three countries in the whole world that had diplomatic relations with the Taliban. Even though the Taliban had provided refuge to a diehard Saudi royal family opponent and the leader of Al-Qaeda Osama Bin Laden, Saudi Arabia still chose not to break its relations with the Taliban. One benefit of relations with the Taliban for Saudi Arabia was that the presence of Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan allowed it to let all Saudi extremists and individuals who were a potential threat to the Saudi royal family to gather around Osama, far away from Saudi Arabia itself. When the Taliban announced during the talks in Abu Dhabi that they would break its relations with Al-Qaeda and other militant organizations, it seemed that they had made the announcement in consultation with and upon request from Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia and Al-Qaeda
If the Taliban break away with Al-Qaeda, the latter will lose its local network and assets which will lead to a decrease in the operational capacity of Al-Qaeda. Saudi Arabia considered the Osama-led Al-Qaeda as a threat to its security from its very start which was the reason Saudi Arabia cooperated with the United States in all operations against Al-Qaeda. However, reports exist about the royal family’s underhand contact with this network. On 15 February 2015, a former Al-Qaeda member claimed that a number of Saudi royal family members were the original backers of the Al-Qaeda network in the 1990s. Zakaria Mousavi, who has been in prison since 2006, had stated that he had spoken to certain employees of the Saudi embassy in Washington about striking down the US presidential airplane, the Air Force One. In reality, the contacts between Saudi Arabia and extremist groups form the basis of relations between Saudi Arabia and the Taliban.
Saudi Arabia and Iran
Saudi Arabia fears Iran’s influence in Afghanistan as well. Shiite Iran invests in the Hazara minority of Afghanistan. Iran wishes to expand its influence in Afghanistan through its soft power and this way reduce the areas of Saudi influence. In this regard, Iran has already been working on winning the loyalty of some Sunni leaders. Cultural and educational opportunities and benefits form a portion of this investment. Additionally, suspicion exists that Saudi Arabia might be supporting both the Taliban and ISIS in Afghanistan to prevent Iran from furthering its cause and influence.
The United Arab Emirate
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have a very close and shared policy vis-a-vis Afghanistan. They wish to develop direct channels of interaction with and influence over the Taliban to vie with Qatar. However, the better part of the UAE’s connections are with the Haqqani Network within the Taliban. Although, just like Saudi Arabia, the UAE provided support to jihadi groups after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan but it paid most of its attention and support to the armed group led by Jalalauddeen Haqqani. “Aside from collecting virtually a revolutionary tax from local merchants, as well as outright extortion, it took advantage of the booming drug trade.”16 Besides this, the United Arab Emirate has not only secretly maintained its relations with the Taliban after the fall of their regime but has also sponsored a number of their meetings and gatherings as well.
The United Arab Emirates has a problem with the Shiite political and social worldview. On 10 January 2018, a bomb explosion took place during a gathering in a Kandahar hotel in which a number of UAE diplomats, including its ambassador Juma Al-Mubaraki, were killed. The Afghan government stated that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the government of the UAE itself had assisted with the investigation and that the perpetrator of the attack had been traced back to have lived in Pakistan, however, it is believed that the attack was jointly carried out by Iran and Pakistan. This is the reason that the Emirates wants to focus on ways and means to use against the interests of Iran. Therefore, once again, the Afghan government, especially its diplomatic corps and intelligence agencies, needs to accomplish deep work to keep ourselves informed about the objectives of this country and to perform active diplomacy to draw benefit from this state of affairs.
China
China has recently opened a new chapter in its relations with Afghanistan and this year began with the visit of Afghanistan’s National Security Advisor Hamdullah Muhib’s visit to China on 10 January 2019. This visit was the most important one of its kind because it opened a new debate with China about mutual relations. The relations between China and Afghanistan during the presidency of Hamid Karzai and the few years following it were only sentimental and ordinary. But Hamdullah Mohib brought a diplomatic transformation by opening serious discussions with China about the future of Afghanistan. Because China’s relations with the Taliban have strengthened as well, it is believed that China too can play a role in seeking peace in Afghanistan. The two trips by members of the Taliban to China in 2018 were good examples of the good relations between the Taliban and China and the government of Afghanistan must take advantage of this state of affairs.
Apparently, China has two objectives to realize from stability in Afghanistan and its relations with the country. The first objective is to break links between the Taliban and the Uyghur militants permanently and this can happen in two ways. The first is to help the Taliban secure a role in the political future of Afghanistan but conditional upon the Taliban breaking completely away from Uyghurs. The second is to help the government of Afghanistan, in case the Taliban do become a part of the country’s political future, in order that the future government of Afghanistan will not assist groups that would threaten the national security and sovereignty of China. The second objective of China’s involvement in Afghanistan is economic. China has penetrated into Afghanistan’s economic system by buying the contract for the Mes Aynak mines and it wishes to expand this economic partnership. Besides these, due to China’s investment worth $50 billion in Pakistan, it would want the instability in neighboring Afghanistan to end and therefore China wishes to strengthen political stability in Afghanistan.
Since China has significant influence over Pakistan, it is essential for Afghanistan to align its interest in the region with those of China. If we were able to bring our interest in line with those of China, it would protect us from the disruptive and sabotage-oriented project of Pakistan because Pakistan would never take such a stand against China.
China, Pakistan and Afghanistan
In the meantime another school of thought has developed in Afghanistan which considers close relations with China to be disadvantageous. However, Chinese policies are economic in nature. The Chinese do not wish get too involved in geopolitical rivalries. Therefore, we may say that neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan are important enough for China to allow any harm to its economic power. The Chinese policy is very different from those of other great economic powers. The Chinese extend an invitation to a win-win situation. They want to invest in every country and invite other countries to mutual efforts to secure their interests through Chinese investment. The western world accuses China of pursuing a debt-trap policy but that is a separate great discussion. At present both Pakistan and Afghanistan are highly important for China as both have strategic significance. The success of an investment worth $50 billion in Pakistan is directly linked to Afghanistan. Besides, Afghanistan is filled with natural resources and China needs it to obtain raw material, therefore, China would want to invest in Afghanistan after peace is established and thus beat its competitors in the race to reach the raw materials. In South Asia, Pakistan is important to China as its eyes in the region. To a great extent, China consults with Pakistan in regards to strategies for South Asia, however, recently there have been reports that China is now gradually moving out of Pakistan’s influence. China’s relations with India are improving fast and now it even wishes to invest in Afghanistan jointly with India.
China and Afghan Reconciliation
China at present has close relations with the Taliban and it is believed that it can play an important role in regards to negotiating peace in Afghanistan. It can exert pressure on Pakistan through Russia and urge Pakistan to withdraw support for the Taliban. However, Kabul too needs a policy that keeps the sensitivities of the region and the neighbors in view. China, by its official policy, does not wish to get as deeply involved in Afghanistan as the United States nor does it wish to repeat the mistakes the US has made. They are completely opposed to sending troops to another country, political interference or getting involved in nation building. So far there is no sign that they would fill the space the absence of the United States might leave, however, if the US does withdraw from Afghanistan, China can assist in bringing about a political settlement between the Afghan government and its internal opponents.
Conclusion
Even though the Afghan government always stresses upon its ownership of the peace process but countries from the region and beyond, including the United States, have their own separate agendas related to achieving peace in Afghanistan. The United States desires that a threat to its national security must not emanate from Afghanistan again and once they have received that assurance, they would no longer have a problem with the Taliban. For this purpose, the US State Department has appointed Zalmay Khalilzad as the special envoy for reconciliation in Afghanistan who is trying to develop an international consensus over peace in the country and make reconciliation with the Taliban possible. For the sake of maintaining its influence in Central Asia, Russia wants a government in Afghanistan that would not be as pro-west as the current government. This is why it maintains relations with political parties and other groups, including the Taliban, to benefit from them within the politics and government structure of Afghanistan.
The growth of extremism in Afghanistan and its influence on Uyghur Muslims, who are seeking freedom, is China’s greatest concern. China wishes to stop all the routes that help the Uyghur to rebel, mutiny or stand up against it. India also deems peace in Afghanistan to be important. India’s concerns are extremism as well as Pakistan’s influence in a future Afghanistan but, as a great economic power, access to Central Asian markets is the most factor for India. The current Indian attention upon and mild contact with the Taliban are meant to protect its access to the above-mentioned markets in a future Afghanistan where the Taliban have a political role.
Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are deeply involved in the peace process in Afghanistan and they contact the different sides in the process because each country wants to play an important role in the future of Afghanistan. With all of them in view, Afghanistan should do two things. First, it should never allow another country to own any part of the negotiation process. Second, Afghanistan should improve its relations with countries that have had good association with it historically or those that enjoy good political and economic standing in the world, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, and therefore Afghanistan must invite more countries into the peace process. The summit of religious scholars in Indonesia to proscribe the Afghan war religiously was the best step in this regard and this should process should continue. Central Asian countries, such Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan should also be drawn into this peace process and set on a perch from where the economic potential of the country and their interest in Afghanistan are be secure.
Recommendations
Keeping the circumstances above in mind, we have two ways to bring about peace in Afghanistan. Just as it was discussed here that several countries are involved in the Afghanistan problem and each has its own specific objectives. Therefore, one way is the active diplomatic engagement of all these countries in order for us to guarantee their interests and eventually bring about peace. Going by both the recent and the not-so-recent history of Afghanistan, the path of dialog and diplomacy, other factors within which have been made clearer below, has not yielded positive results and our history during the last century and especially during the last 17 years shows that it is impossible to reach a situation where neighboring, regional, and all the international forces should define their national interests in Afghanistan in such a manner that it would bring peace to Afghanistan. Some other components of achieving peace through diplomacy have been summarized below:
- Active Diplomacy
Bringing about reforms in Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs will play an important role in keeping the diplomacy active. This is why we recommend that serious changes should take place in the ministry. The ministry should send such representatives to each country who are familiar with the politics and culture of the host countries and persuade them to extend cooperation and assistance to Afghanistan. Additionally, we recommend that the government should form lobbying groups within and outside the country to lobby for the interests of Afghanistan in foreign countries and steer their policies according to the wishes and interests of Afghanistan.
2. Expansion of Economic Relations with Neighboring Countries
Close cooperation with and assurance about the future of Afghanistan to India, China, Russia, and the countries of Central Asia and the Arab Gulf can enable Afghanistan to make the negotiations a success. The fears of a number of countries should be pacified in appropriate ways so that, instead of the Taliban and militant groups, they would establish channels of interaction with the central government of Afghanistan and find ways to end the conflict.
3. Taking Advantage of Chinese and American Influence over Pakistan
There is no doubt that the United States still has influence over Pakistan and by using it, the US can at least steer Pakistan away from interfering in Afghanistan. Breaking its relations with the Taliban should be the first condition for Pakistan following which Afghanistan can open doors to other discussions with the country. Afghanistan should take practical steps to end Pakistan’s “Afghano-phobia”. China too can use its economic influence in this regard. Our economic relations with China can first get it involved in Afghanistan’s equations and then, as a country with influence over China, Afghanistan can obtain benefits from it for the sake of peace and reconciliation.
4. Alternatives to Saudi Arabia
There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia is playing the role of a leading Muslim country but the contribution of Saudi Arabia is not as significant in solving the problems of Afghanistan as it should be. Instead of being an ally of legitimate governments in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia has for a long time sided with disparate groups, especially the Taliban, and has developed special channels of communication with them. Instead of helping Afghanistan become more stable, Saudi actions have hadthe opposite effect of destabilizing the country. Saudi Arabia is distinct because the holiest Muslim site, the Ka’aba’, is located there, however, Afghanistan should consider finding political alternatives to Saudi Arabia. At present, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Egypt can be good alternatives to it.
5. The Status of the Taliban
The government needs to take an immediate and serious notice of the Taliban traveling to different countries. The Taliban should only have the permission to use the Qatar office for talks. The countries that wish to negotiate with the Taliban should send their representative to Qatar to meet them instead of the Taliban travelling to other countries. The Taliban should remain under the travel ban until the Afghanistan negotiations have reached a successful conclusion. This is because the Taliban organization is still blacklisted by the United Nations as a terrorist organization and all the sanctions imposed by the UN must be applied.
The Second Path: The second route to establishing peace is the government of Afghanistan and its people turning all their energies and attention towards winning the war. This path has a better chance of succeeding than the negotiation track because the Taliban and the strategists who support them will only bow to negotiate if convinced that they have lost the war. Here it may be asked that if peace could be established through war, the war of the last 17 years should have done that. The answer is that during the last 17 years, we have not made the grave mistake of not having defined the enemy. This is why our losses are very high and the result is also unknown. If we realistically define our internal and external enemies and believe that peace is achieve on the battlefield, we will be able to achieve peace.
Reference:
1.https://thediplomat.com/2018/12/talking-with-the-enemy-why-india-needs-to-engage-the-taliban/
4.http://www.farsi.ru/doc/4707.html
5.https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/russia-and-the-taliban-talking-with-terrorists/
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11. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/05/mike-pompeo-speech-12-demands-iran-180521151737787.html
14. https://www.mepc.org/us-iran-engagement-through-afghanistan
15.https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/saudi-arabia-and-future-afghanistan
16. Jaffrelot Christophe, The Pakistan Paradox:Instability and Resilience page 539, oxford university press year 2015.
17. Bergen Peter and Tiedemann Katherine, Talibanistan: Negotiating the Borders Between Terror, Politics, and Religion, 2012, Oxford University Press.