As Dr. Abdullah is leading the peace process in close collaboration with President Ghani, it hints a new era in Afghan and regional politics that carries the good news of peace and prosperity out with itself.
Weekly Analysis
On September 30, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Chairman of High Council for National Reconciliation of Afghanistan (HCNR) concluded his first 3-day official visit (28-30 September) to Pakistan since he became appointed HCNR Chairman as a result of the most disputed Presidential Elections in 2019.
From the last two years, the Afghan government not only had lost its influence and control over the Afghan (government)-led and Afghan-owned process but at-hand national consensus had also been off-tracked. At a personal capacity, prominent Afghan opposition figures, held meetings with Taliban at Doha, Moscow and Islamabad, which bypassed the role of the Afghan government in ongoing peace process. Nevertheless, establishment of HCNR and appointment of Abdullah as its Chairman gave rise to an institutional intervention in this regard. It brought the entire players under one roof, and countered the Taliban and its allies’ dream to marginalize the Afghan government in intra-Afghan negotiations as it had in U.S.-Taliban talks.
Dr. Abdullah was invited by Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi to visit Pakistan back in July. Two months before that, the electoral and political standoff which had beset the country for months has been ended by a new power-sharing agreement signed on 17 May 2020 by President Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah. On the base of the agreement, Dr. Abdullah became the sole responsible person to lead the overall peace process. From among neighboring and regional countries, Pakistan’s ministry of foreign affairs also welcomed the signing of the agreement.
Then, Abdullah arrived in Pakistan after twelve years from the time of his last visit to the country in 2008. Meanwhile, it is counted as the first visit by any senior Afghan official in months.
Moreover, Abdullah, prior to his departure to Islamabad, was briefed by Chief Afghan Negotiator in Doha, Mr. Massoum Stanekzai regarding the recent developments in the intra-Afghan negotiations with Taliban, which were assessed as “positive” by him.
The main themes discussed in Abdullah’s visit to Pakistan were the necessity and urgency of a negotiated political settlement to Afghan disputes, that there is no military solution to the Afghan conflict political, and thus, a solution should be sought through an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process. Fortunately, the consensus, which previously upheld by Afghan side only, that ‘peace in Afghanistan is in benefit of Pakistan and region,’ was also emerged in Pakistan. Hence, the country has received a unique opportunity to exhibit its influence over the Taliban and make them to have some compromises in their talks with Afghan government in Doha, Qatar.
A week before the trip, Abdullah had a conversation with U.S. Council on Foreign Relations where he considered the atmosphere at Doha “healthy”, but added that, ‘there is a long way ahead of us. Nobody can ignore all the complexities involved. There is a lot of mistrust, founded or unfounded,’ he believed.
Nonetheless, Pakistan considers itself as a central and main player in the Afghan peace process, and thus, is very concerned about the spoilers in order to not to lose the chance. Pakistan is well-aware that it will be benefited more from a peace agreement between Afghan government and Taliban in compare to Afghanistan, itself. From the very beginning of its creation, Pakistan has sought to have a friendly administration established in Afghanistan as it is involved in an unending rivalry with India, and thus needs a strategic depth in Afghan soil, therefore, it has supported Afghan insurgency since last 40 years, hoping to bring a loyal group to power.
Now, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is unified, and despite the Taliban and its allies’ incessant demand to negotiate with Afghan side as individuals not as a system, is committed to pursue negotiations with Taliban group as a representative government of the Afghan people. The unprecedented political will and tact of the Afghan leaders, in due course, made Pakistan to shift its official policy towards Afghanistan, and stay in line with the wish of Afghans, who want to reach a dignified and lasting peace without losing the achievements of last 20 years.
In 2016, the same was suggested by former Pakistani Ambassador to Netherlands, Javid Husain, in his book titled ‘Pakistan and a World in Disorder: A Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First Century’: “We should pursue a policy of noninterference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs in coordination with Iran, Turkey, China, and other neighboring countries. We should facilitate and support intra-Afghan dialogue aimed at national reconciliation and a fair political settlement among the various Afghan parties and groups to ensure durable peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan should also provide development assistance to Afghanistan to help in the reconstruction and economic progress of the country. We should further develop people-to-people contacts between the two countries and build up bridges of understanding and friendship with the various ethnic communities, Pashtuns and non-Pashtuns, in Afghanistan.”
Apart from security, Pakistan has faced many other challenges, a few of whom can be listed as follow; ‘climate change and water disputes in the region, income disparity and the patterns of rising population, scuffle between major powers for markets and resources, and continuing shifts of power in Asia.’
Furthermore, Pakistan’s development, economy, and prosperity is largely, if not solely, dependent on regional projects of BRI, CPEC, TAPI, CASA-1000, and flow of goods and energy from and to South Asia and Central Asia which, all need to be buy-in from the Taliban, more trust between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and a peace deal in Afghanistan, or at least more stability.
Abdullah broadly signal out as “very patient” by his partners, and that makes him a best choice to lead the Afghan peace process, which require an exaggerating amount of patience and persistence. He, in person, is also satisfied and confident with the job which is one of the most difficult in someone’s political career. For that reason, Pakistani officials hoped that visit of Abdullah will be a fresh search and start of engagement between Afghan and Pakistani governments and their nations. Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, got even further and said that bygone is bygone and we should learn from the past not to live in. The wish of Pakistani nation was not remained unanswered by Abdullah, where he, in return, talked about a new vision, a new and peaceful future, and diverse, connected and transformed nations.
Interestingly, the Pakistani officials and intellectuals were more engrossed in people-to-people relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as economic dividends of the Afghan peace process this time. And so, Pakistani officials had fruitful discussions with Abdullah on visa regulations, movement facilitation while crossing the Durand Line, and trade facilitation.
It is worth mentioning that, Abdullah had taken several interviews with international media before, during and after his visit to Pakistan where he principally talked about maintaining a significant reduction in violence leading to a comprehensive ceasefire, and finding ways to live together in Afghanistan without trying to impose our own views over the rest of the population. Furthermore, realizing that these extremist terrorist elements which are taking advantage of the situation, like al-Qaida and ISIS, or any other terrorist organization, are not serving any country’s interest is a wise thought, he said. Lastly, Abdullah also hoped that there isn’t any miscalculation in part of the Taliban in a way that tomorrow, when the U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan, then there might be a chance to overcome otherwise. That would be a big miscalculation, and that would be a missed opportunity for all of us, he stressed.
As a conclusion, stand and thoughtfulness of Abdullah in leading the peace process in close collaboration with President Ghani is a sign of new era in Afghan and regional politics that carries the good news of peace and prosperity out with itself. As a vigorous and discreet nation, Pakistan is also attentive to developments in Afghanistan, and in consequence, does whatever in its power to remove the spoilers and make sure the Afghan peace closes in its interest, and so it is well-aware that the road passes through Kabul.