Strategic Superiority of Afghanistan over Pakistan

Aug

Strategic Superiority of Afghanistan over Pakistan

Introduction:

All discussions about the relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan revolve around the political tension between the two countries and this political tension has existed throughout the seven decades of their shared history. Over the last forty years, Pakistan has worked in various ways to weaken Afghanistan politically and economically and has persistently pursued its strategic interests and objectives. Pakistan has used and still uses terrorism as a political instrument against Afghanistan. However, this state of affairs has been changing over recent years. With the advent of the national unity government in Afghanistan, the international community has somewhat changed its attitude towards Pakistan and the role of the government of Afghanistan in bringing about this change is clearly visible.

At present, the discussions are focused on neutralizing Pakistan and finding the factors that will grant Afghanistan superiority over this country. What is being sought is how Afghanistan can create the necessary conditions for Pakistan to see its interests in keeping good relations with the Afghan government instead of continuing to pursue a policy of supporting proxies.

Potentially, Afghanistan possesses much that can solidify stability in the country and prevent its neighbors from interfering inside the country, however, no serious effort so far has been undertaken in this regard.

In recent years, the government of Afghanistan has realized that it needs to find and focus on Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel. Keeping that point in mind, this piece of writing explores the strategic location of Afghanistan, its economic markets, its natural resources, the international platforms it has access to, and its historical and cultural powers.

Strategic Location

The opening and expansion of trade routes from India to Central Asia and Iran and even routes all the way to Europe have significantly increased the importance of Afghanistan’s geographical location. In today’s economy-focused world, trade routes count as the most important factor that contributes to the importance of a country’s strategic location. Because, geographically, Afghanistan connects China to Europe and India to Central Asia and the Middle East, hope about the future of Afghanistan has grown. Two themes have long been connected to the strategic location of Afghanistan: First, Afghanistan as a trade transit of which the Silk Route is an ancient example; and second is the presence of peace in Afghanistan, as a country which once used to be the buffer that lay right in the middle of Tsarist Russian and British Empire territories. During the current era, however, one should consider the possibility of Pakistan gaining the buffer zone status in case it allies with pro-Russian countries but this does not appear to be acceptable to the Western world including the United States.

After the September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States, Afghanistan once again rose to the top of the world’s security agenda. The international community interfered and still maintains a presence in Afghanistan. Keeping the two themes discussed above in mind, Afghanistan is considered to be part of South Asia, the Middle East as well as Central Asia and therefore holds strategic importance for powerful countries. Leveraging its strategic location, it is possible for Afghanistan to dominate Pakistan. Afghanistan still possesses the kind of great importance it held during the 19th century as a country located between great powers. Just as Ashraf Ghani had said, we can call Afghanistan the Asian Square because many countries are interested in it in economic, political, and geopolitical terms.

Afghanistan’s Markets and the Economics Field

Afghanistan is the 122^nd largest importer in the world. In 2017, Afghanistan’s imports were worth $5.07 billion. Wheat makes up 8.26% of Afghanistan’s imports which is a significant portion of the total imports. ¹

Ninety percent of Afghanistan’s imports include vehicles, oil and other products from Pakistan, the United States, India, Iran, China, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Pakistan is at the top of the list of countries from where Afghanistan imports various products worth $1.39 billion².

Therefore, Afghanistan is a huge market for Pakistan and losing it would be a great blow to Pakistan’s economy.

Afghanistan imports flour, cloth, and other products from Pakistan but it is possible for Afghanistan to import them from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Turkmenistan, and some other countries. This is why if Afghanistan uses its market as an instrument of pressure against Pakistan, it can force it to stop interfering in the country. Trade is the true dynamic of relations in the contemporary world and Afghanistan has the opportunity to use trade against Pakistan to its benefit.

In 2018, the Pakistan government reported that its market share in Afghanistan had decreased significantly and in the previous two years, Pakistan’s trade with Afghanistan had decreased from $2.8 billion to $1.2 billion.³

Uzbekistan produces ten products that form the better parts of its exports. These are products that Afghanistan desperately needs in its markets and at the moment these are being imported from Pakistan. Besides, Afghanistan has home-grown resources that can not only help reduce the level of imports from Pakistan but also from other countries. Afghanistan’s contract with Uzbekistan to rebuild its textile mills is a great step forward in this regard. In March 2019, Afghanistan signed a contract with Uzbekistan according to which the latter will rebuild 7 textile factories in Afghanistan which will provide direct and indirect employment to thousands of people.

In January 2019, the Pakistan government reported that its cement exports to Afghanistan had fallen by 22.8% to 928,319 tonnes.⁴

Similarly, poultry producers and traders have also expressed concern that their exports to Afghanistan had decreased.⁵These are all areas in which Afghanistan can meet its needs domestically or can import the products from some other country instead of Pakistan.

Natural Resources of Afghanistan

Ashraf Ghani has famously stated that Afghanistan’s water is its dignity and respect. Though Mr. Ghani is a little sentimental in highlighting the importance of water, the reality is that Afghanistan’s water and its other natural riches are its guarantees for survival. In the 21^st century, third-world countries, the name given to less developed countries, are divided into two groups in regards to their future. First are those that are expected to emerge out of their backwardness and find their respective places among developed countries and in the second are those which have little chance of getting out of their circumstances.

Geography, area, location, population, natural resources, economy, and culture are the factors that can play a role in these countries emerging out of poverty and getting themselves removed from the list of backward countries. Afghanistan is one of those countries because its area is relatively vast, its natural resources are plentiful, and it is possible for Afghanistan to de-list itself from among third-world countries if it can develop control over the war. But achieving the status of an emerging economic power would require a comprehensive development strategy and serious efforts for at least two decades. The Afghan strategy can resemble the Malaysia 2020 strategy which is generally cited as an example for developing countries and President Ghani himself has referred to it several times.

The natural resources of Afghanistan can have an impact not only inside the country but also on neighboring countries as well. Afghanistan has five river basins where the level of water reaches 57 billion cubic meters.⁶

But we should not forget that control over water and its usage as a source of political power requires scientific diplomacy. Such diplomacy will enable us to achieve our objectives as well as avoid violating international laws regarding water control and distribution.

Afghanistan is fortunate to have water resources that get renewed annually but it is unfortunate that a large portion of this water flows into neighboring countries and this is why water management is extremely important for Afghanistan. As Ashraf Ghani once stated that for Afghanistan, water can be as valuable as the oil of neighboring countries. This value can be realized through effective water management. Pakistan owes its current level of prosperity to the water of Afghanistan as it does not have its own water resources. This is why water diplomacy with Pakistan should be considered. It is believed that by developing control over its water, Afghanistan can in turn control or decrease interference from Pakistan.

The International Stage

Pakistan possesses a very bad image internationally. The killing of Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan and support for the Taliban are the issues that are carrying the country ever closer to getting neutralized. On the contrary, Afghanistan has more credibility and status on the international level than it has ever had. Convincing the international community in regards to neutralizing Pakistan will help Afghanistan move towards stability. But Afghanistan needs to consider a few points in this regard.

A: Reforms in the Afghan Diplomatic Corps: Even though the world is interested in Afghanistan, it maintains a presence in the country and wishes to invest here but Afghan embassies abroad are not meeting their obligations. Some of the embassies urgently need reforms and it is expected that practical steps will be taken in this regard soon after the upcoming elections. In some of the embassies, instead of working for the President and the diplomatic corps, certain employees consider themselves obliged to work for the people who managed to appoint them illegally or there are employees who have become officials in foreign countries due to the distribution of political power in the unity government.

B: Reconstitution of Foreign Policy: At the moment, the foreign policy of Afghanistan comprises the words and actions of the president. It means that there is no written foreign policy that can guide the diplomats in their interactions with other countries. Therefore, there is a need for the foreign ministry to change from an organ that acts instead of remaining one that is acted upon and develops a tangible foreign policy. Such a document can answer many questions and clear several ambiguities in Afghanistan’s foreign relations and it will prevent most of the ill-discipline in the diplomatic corps.

PTM, a Strategic Asset

Solidarity with the stances of the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (Pashtun Protection Movement or PTM) on the international level is a strategic investment for Afghanistan. Every type of pressure on Pakistan can reduce and contain Pakistan’s interference in Afghanistan. Compared to support for Baloch separatists and the Pakistani Taliban, support for PTM is of far more vital importance. The reason is that the PTM is a legal organization that the international community formally recognizes and it carries forward its mission in accordance with international norms and laws. The armed activities of the Pakistani Taliban and the Baloch separatists are viewed to be against international laws because the first is involved in terrorism and while the second is apparently not included in any list of terrorist groups but its armed actions fall within the framework by which terrorist groups are designated to be so. We saw that a single tweet by President Ashraf Ghani in support of the PTM left a deep impression on Pakistan and drew serious reactions from its officials.

Conclusion

Pakistan is surrounded by more geographical limitations than Afghanistan. In economic calculations, such limitations are directly linked to the growth of countries. The trade comes at the top of many discussions over Pakistan’s growth but Pakistan has several trade issues with other countries. India lies to one side of Pakistan and Afghanistan to the other and it historically has not kept good relations with either country. It does not have a choice but to reach an understanding with both. Pakistan neither exports anything to India due to the hostilities nor anything to China because of the repletion of the Chinese market. Therefore, Pakistan has to improve its relations with Central Asia including Afghanistan. Pakistan has two interests in Afghanistan. The first is that Afghanistan has a large market for it and the second is that the transit route to Central Asia goes through Afghanistan. Pakistan is forced to reach an understanding with Afghanistan for its own economic growth and thus will have to avoid putting pressure on Afghanistan. Therefore, it is important for Afghanistan to take serious steps in regards to economic relations with Pakistan and its transit route to Central Asia.

Recommendations

1- By closing Pakistan’s transit route to Central Asia, Afghanistan can force it to stop its interference in the country. Such a step can also pave the way for international guarantees in regards to putting an end to Pakistan’s interference in Afghanistan.

2- Building dams on the Kunar and Kabul rivers can also increase pressure on Pakistan. These dams can give Afghanistan long-term superiority over Pakistan but the government of Afghanistan should remain cautious until the work on the dams is completed.

3- Pakistan badly needs electricity and energy and this is why Afghanistan should undertake serious work on energy production and then by exporting energy to Pakistan, Afghanistan can make the country even more dependent on itself.

4- High tariffs on Pakistani products will not only increase pressure on Pakistan but will also allow domestic products within Afghanistan to find a market.

5- Pakistan must be neutralized on the international stage and in order to do this, Afghanistan needs to bring about changes and reforms in its diplomatic corps.

6- Strengthening relations with the United States, China, and Russia can also increase pressure on Pakistan to stop its interference in Afghanistan.

References:

Tarzi Research Foundation

Telephone

0093786111178

Email Address

info@tarziresearch.org

Office Address

Shar-e-Nawo, Kabul Afghanistan