Besides core parties of the Afghan conflict i.e. the US, Afghan government and Taliban-, the success and endurance of Afghan peace process needs inclusion of regional players as well, though the Afghan government itself is not included in the peace process as of now.
The current episode of US-Taliban Peace Talks, as a part of the broader Afghan conflict resolution efforts, has been going on since last October. It postponed after Trump’s tweets on response to Taliban’s recent suicide attack in Kabul, which killed one US soldier and twelve Afghans. It has been expected that talks will resume within next few weeks. Trump’s administration appointed Zalmay Khalilzad, as a Special envoy to negotiate with the leadership of Taliban. Khalilzad’s extensive negotiations with Taliban's negotiators in Doha, reached a final stage, without the inclusion of elected Afghan government. Taliban have agreed that they would ensure prevention of its platform and Afghan soil being used by terrorist networks to pose threats to the US national security.
In response, the US will withdraw its forces from Afghanistan within a mutually agreed time-frame. Ceasefire and Intra-Afghan dialogue were other demands of Khalilzad, which are still under debate and are not finalized yet. According to the media reports, the US-Taliban Doha-talks has entered its 9th round, in which the final draft of the agreement has been finalized. As per the agreement, the Taliban will not only cut-down ties with Al-Qaeda, but also cooperate with the US against ISIS in Afghanistan.
Besides core parties of the afghan conflict i.e. the US, Afghan government and Taliban-, the success and endurance of Afghan peace process needs inclusion of regional players as well, though the Afghan government itself is not included in the peace process as of now. Everyone wants share in Afghan peace process, but Kabul only wants peace for Afghans. Regional stakeholders like Pakistan, Iran, China, India and Russia have shown interest to be involved in the ongoing process in order to preserve their interests in post-settlement Afghanistan.
Pakistan
Pakistan shares 2640 km British-drawn Durand Line with Afghanistan and shares cultural, linguistic, ethnic similarities as well. Pakistan is considered as one of the main antagonists in the decades’ long Afghan conflict. Taliban’s movement which emerged from Pakistani Madrassas has enjoyed nonstop support of Pak’s military and intelligence. Pakistan do so to counter Indian
influence in Afghanistan, pressurize Afghan government and to prevent long term US presence in Afghanistan.
History is repeating itself as Pakistan is again involved in the Afghan peace process just like The Geneva Peace Agreement of 80s, to provide safe passage to the US for withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan. Islamabad also wants to have a greater say on the future of Afghanistan. Although, Islamabad has recognized the post-Taliban Afghan governments, the Pak Army and
Inter-Service-Intelligence’s (ISI)– the leading Pakistani intelligence institution has always supported the Taliban while staying an ally of US simultaneously. Durand Line, shared-water, cross-border tensions, Afghanistan’s close relations with India and shutdown of the transit routes were the main issues between Kabul and Islamabad, which deteriorated bilateral relations.
Former Pakistani ambassador to Washington- Hussain Haqqani, argues that by getting involved in the Afghan peace process, Pakistan hopes to gain political support from Washington in Kashmir issues and to resume long-stalled financial assistance of the US to Pakistan. Pakistan is actively involved in various formats of the current peace efforts by regional players and also in
US-Taliban talks in Doha. By siding with the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan wishes to isolate and delegitimize the Ghani government which have strong Indian support. If Pakistan fails to gain enough from the Afghan Peace process, it might sabotage the whole process. As a historical opposer of Taliban, India has been sidelined in the recent Afghan Peace Process.
India
Delhi is now showing signs that it wants to be an active regional player in Afghan peace efforts. Last year in an Intra-Afghan Peace meet up in Moscow, two ex-Indian diplomats also participated unofficially and only as observers. Last February, Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated in a press release that India would participate in any format of peace talks regarding the Afghan conflict. The presence of foreign troops provided a secure base for India to increase its investment and influence in Afghanistan, as a result of which India received much appreciation and established a positive image among Afghans. Delhi is concerned about security and impact of its investment, national interests and its influence over the Afghan government in case of US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
India desires to limit Islamabad massive influence/control over the ongoing peace process. Delhi wants to get a forum to share its perspective regarding their future role in Afghanistan. India has historically adopted partisan policy towards Taliban. According to this policy, India support (both financially and militarily) those groups and individuals, who have anti-Pakistan
orientations. As Taliban are backed by the ISI, Delhi supported Northern Alliance – a non-Pashtun anti-Taliban group- from 1996-2001 and Afghan government after 2001. After a successful peace agreement with the Afghan government in the near future, the Taliban might become an integral part of the Afghan political apparatus. India now seeks to establish ties with Taliban and follow a conciliator policy towards the Taliban.
Iran
Like India, Iran also had tense relations with the Taliban regime, and along with India and Russia, Tehran also supported the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. Iran had relations with the Taliban regime (as later belonged to Sunni sect of Islam, had recognition and financial support of Saudi Arabia) to counter Saudi’s influence in Afghanistan. After 2005, Iran began to support Taliban covertly via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Both parties have common interests in Afghanistan to prevent the US from having permanent military bases in Afghanistan. Iran also needs the support of Taliban to fight against Islamic State of Khurasan Province (ISKP)– a faction of Islamic State-, and sabotage the construction of Afghanistan's hydro-management infrastructure.
Iran is worried about the growing Saudi relations with the Afghan government and the Taliban, that might create another Yemen-like scenario in Afghanistan. After the successful peace deal with the Afghan government, Taliban movement might transition from an insurgent to a political group and might become a part of future Afghan government structure, Iran desire to have cordial relations with them prior to any agreement.
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirate
The KSA and the UAE on the other hand are not willing to lag behind in this race. Both states desire to counter the prominent role of Qatar in ongoing Peace process and wishes to expand its coalition against Iran and Qatar. They had offered the Taliban to conduct peace-talks at Jeddah or Abu-Dhabi instead of Doha, but the Taliban rejected it. Saudi Arabia conditionally gave $6
billion aid to Pakistan to persuade Taliban for peace and negotiations.
China
China, a powerful neighbor of Afghanistan, strives to ensure the security of Chinese interests, investments, citizens and infrastructures in Afghanistan. Beijing also wishes to ensure that the anti-China terrorists' safe-havens are not opened in Afghanistan. China facilitates and mediates talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Chinese officials often openly support Afghan-led and Afghan-owned intra-Afghan peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Beijing is an active participant of Moscow Summit, Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG), Murree talks and Urumqi meetings regarding Afghan conflict resolution.
As a self-proclaimed responsible power, China believes that stability in neighborhood and surrounding region is necessary for the peaceful rise of China and the success of the Belt and Road Initiative, an inter-regional connectivity project. Beijing is worried about the use of Afghan soil by Uighur insurgents after the returning of the Taliban to power. China seeks guarantee from the Taliban in this regard.
Russia
Russia, another neighbor of Afghanistan, which seeks to play a role in ending Afghan conflict and to undercut the US control over the Afghan peace process. After the four-rounds of QCG in which Russia was not included, Moscow started alternative Afghan Peace Talks initiatives, to challenge the Afghan government and the US administration role regarding the Afghan conflict resolution. The rise of ISKP in Afghanistan jolted Moscow, and they took this development as a conspiracy of the US to contain Russia’s influence in Central Asia.
Russia cooperates with the Taliban to prevent the spread of ISKP across the northern borders of Afghanistan. Afghan government from the last 18 years and especially after 2015, did not maintain a balance in its diplomatic relations with the US and Russia. Afghan government’s too much dependency on the US limited the role of Moscow in Afghanistan. By its greater engagement in the Afghan Peace Process, Russia seeks to normalize relations with the Taliban and increase its role in the future Afghanistan.
Afghan Peace Process has become a stage of the Great Game for regional players, all of whom wants to preserve their interests and have a greater role in the future of Afghanistan, but none of them, is interested in welfare of Afghans as they are more focused on their interests rather than the humanitarian side of this brutal conflict. The elected Afghan government has to protect the lives, dignity, unity of Afghans and everything is has achieved last 18 years.
The writer is a Research Fellow with Tarzi Research Foundation, writes on Afghanistan’s foreign affairs, Afghan Peace Process, and regional socio-political and economic issues. He tweets via @DaudMohammadi
## This article first published in India Times on 15 Sep. 2019 https://www.indiatimes.com/amp/news/world/everyone-wants-share-in-afghan-peace-processbut-kabul-wants-peaceful-afghanistan-for-afghans-375782.html#click=https://t.co/GZts34Nc1Y