The forced migration of Alexei Navalny for unspecified time will be one of the serious and long-term factors weakening the opposition activities in Russia.
Alexei Navalny has been forced to leave his homeland. He currently resides in Germany but nobody knows about his future plans and directions rather, it seems apparently, he will not stay at Germany for long.
The issue of the transfer of power (influence within the circles among the opposition circles of Russia), after the expulsion of Mr. Navalny, will be resumed.
This is also possible that dismissal of Mr. Navalny from the political scene will further escalate the controversy within the political opposition circles outside the government system in order to achieve more influence. More interesting is that each of these circles will say: Long Live Alexei! We will follow your pathway.
The forced migration of Alexei Navalny with the undetermined future will be one of the serious and long-term factors of weakening the opposition activities in Russia.
If we assume that Kremlin was the key motivator of the current scenario in Navalni' case, then it is difficult to say that ousting Navalny from the country's political scene with the upcoming and premature elections of the Russian State Duma (equivalent to the Wolesi Jirga in Afghanistan) or to correlate the elections of the local councils(scheduled to be held on September 13). The game seems to have more complex and serious factors and reasons hidden behind it.
Navalny should not take part in the game imminent to be played, especially if he is not present in Russia while the game is being played for the presidential seat in Russia.
Russia's presidential election are scheduled to take place in 2021.
Holding early elections in Russia either by re-electing Vladimir Putin for a new term or is possible by means of launching an operations; for successor. In this way, Navalny's presence in the political game in Moscow was unnecessary because he had the capacity to threaten the implementation of the transfer of power or resumption of Vladimir Putin's rule.
If the story of the newly started game played for the presidency is true, then Mr. Navalny will certainly be out of the game for a long time, at least for one and half year, and will not be allowed to return to Russia under various pretexts.
Brief information about Mr. Alexei Navalny:
The majority of Russians have shown indifference to Navalny's character and destiny, and more seriously, have little knowledge of the activities of this well-known political opponent of the current regime in Russia.
During referendum; Lifadeh Center; A recent neutral polling center found that 25 percent responded in positive about Navalny, while 09 percent disagreed with his vision and activities regarding opposition. 60% percent of Russians say they ignore Navalny. The poll shows that Russians do not have a clear idea of Alexei Navalny currently. Since there is no clarity regarding the opposition activist based on the public opinion, therefore most of the people refuse to give a positive or negative response.
At the same time, it should not be ruled out that the number of Mr. Navalny's fans are increasing with the passage of time and is constantly discussed and reminded in the media and hence the stuff regarding his political career and opposition activities is widely available on the Internet. Mr. Navalny popularity and prominence leaped after police and security forces attacked his anti-Corruption agency's offices in the capital and provinces.
At the same time, a significant number of Russians still do not know what goals Mr. Navalny is pursuing. What is the main motivation for being an opposition activist and what are the sources of his funding for pursuing these activities? The same image; incomprehensible person; has caused people to be cautious in expressing their opinions about him.
On the one hand, what Navalny is saying in his speeches is understandable to everyone, but at the same time, here (in Russia) they fear that either Israel or the United States is behind any opposition movement led by Navalny. The opinion of a large number of Russians about Navalny, in a single sentence, may be: We want to support him, but there is still a serious of distrust regarding him.
Meanwhile, the media reported that Mr. Alexei Navalny, during his stay in the city of Omsk (located in Siberia - Russia), may have been identified by unknown people in one of the cafes of the airport in order to keep him away from the political scene. At the same time, this narrative is not being evaluated seriously by the experts.
For example, it is difficult to imagine exactly which cafe he would go to (because there are so many cafes and restaurants there): would he order a cup of coffee, tea or mineral water? However, Navalny's close friends and colleagues say: "The reason behind Navalny's identification by some of the specified circles is, he (Navalny) being currently the most serious critic and opponent of the ruling regime in Russia, and has traveled to Omsk province for the purpose of the election campaign." . At the same time, Navalny's doctors did not find any signs of intoxication or poisoning.
However, Navalny's abnormal and unpredictable condition led to his transfer to Germany, where he is currently being treated in a well-equipped hospital.
On the other hand, the absence of Navalny's opposition activities is benefiting Vladimir Putin's rule. Due to the political absentia of Navalny from the Russian political scene, the Putin government will heave a sigh of relief.